2016/06/05 - Goats on the wrong track
Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2016 2:56 pm
This has bugged me so much that I’ve registered just to mention it… Isn’t this joke wrong? In conventional trolley problems you would (usually) only ever possibly choose to switch tracks if it harms a smaller number of people to do so.
If one of the other buildings is revealed to have one person in, then switching increases the chance of hitting the building with five people (as per the Monty Hall problem) so you wouldn’t switch regardless of your answer to conventional trolley problems.
If, however, the joke were set up with two houses with five people (booby prizes equivalent to goats) then one of these were revealed, switching would increase the chance of hitting the building with one person (the proverbial car) so a utilitarian would choose to switch. However, others might not switch choosing to permit the deaths of the many to avoid causing the deaths of the few (like in a trolley problem).
There's the added moral jeopardy of, what if you switch based on 2/3 Vs 1/3 odds and actually end up killing more people. I know it doesn’t actually mater and this is stupid but isn’t both the joke and the philosophy better if it’s the other way around?
If one of the other buildings is revealed to have one person in, then switching increases the chance of hitting the building with five people (as per the Monty Hall problem) so you wouldn’t switch regardless of your answer to conventional trolley problems.
If, however, the joke were set up with two houses with five people (booby prizes equivalent to goats) then one of these were revealed, switching would increase the chance of hitting the building with one person (the proverbial car) so a utilitarian would choose to switch. However, others might not switch choosing to permit the deaths of the many to avoid causing the deaths of the few (like in a trolley problem).
There's the added moral jeopardy of, what if you switch based on 2/3 Vs 1/3 odds and actually end up killing more people. I know it doesn’t actually mater and this is stupid but isn’t both the joke and the philosophy better if it’s the other way around?